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What we can learn from fire science
Apr 30th, 2005 by JTJ

In
the IAJ's on-going search for new methodologies, reinforcing lessons
often come through.  On Saturday, April 30, NPR's Scott Simon
taked with John Lentini about analyzing fires.  Lentini's comments
emphasize the need for questioning assumptions and pressing hard to
clarify definitions.




From NPR's “Weekend Edition Saturday:”

“John Lentini, an arson expert, tells Scott Simon about changes that have
brought into question many convictions based on outdated methods of
determining arson. One of this convictions resulted in the execution of
a Texas man in 2004.”
  To listen, click here.



The nuance of statistics
Apr 27th, 2005 by JTJ

Today's New York Times Science Section
carries a column by Richard Friendman, M.D. about the challenge of
explaining statistical concepts and probability to anyone.  (Even
journalists?)  His conclusion: “
The
truth is that random events can make or break us.  It is more
comforting to believe in the power of hard work and merit than to think
that probability reigns not only in the casino but in daily life.”

So there.



See: “Mix Math and Medicine and Create Confusion.”

MAPS – Mapping & Analysis for Public Safety
Apr 22nd, 2005 by JTJ

Spatial data analysis and Geographic Information System (GIS)
technology contribute to the advancement of crime analysis and the
better understanding of criminal behavior. Since 1997 the Mapping &
Analysis for Public Safety (MAPS)
program, formerly the Crime Mapping
Research Center (CMRC), has reached out to academics and practitioners
alike in the criminology, criminal justice and law enforcement
communities to bridge the gap between research and practice. The MAPS
program awards grants, sponsors conferences and workshops, publishes
reports, and provides guidance. It also disseminates information on
training opportunities in spatial data analysis techniques and GIS
technology. In all, the program focuses on research, evaluation,
development, coordination, and dissemination.

Poynter's NewsU offers math for journalists
Apr 11th, 2005 by JTJ

WHAT: Math for Journalists, a new and interactive online course and reference tool

WHO:
Written by Debbie Wolfe, technology training editor, St. Petersburg
Times; designed by Casey Frechette, Poynter NewsU course administrator
and Flash wizard


WHEN: Available beginning today, Mon., April 11, 2005 at 9 a.m. EDT (US)

WHERE: It's available where you are and when you need it. Just log onto the Web even if you only have a 56K dial-up modem.

HOW:
FREE thanks to the Poynter Institute and the Knight Foundation; just
spend a few moments registering at Poynter's NewsU Web site at http://www.newsu.org


WHY:
Because many journalists need an easy to understand, available 24/7 and
free resource to turn to for self-help with math. The content of the
course is the collective wisdom of plenty of gifted math types written
by one who is not, so it's the best of both worlds. Enjoy!




Background about the Math for Journalists course:

    
For the past 30 years, one of my professional goals has been to make
routine math more routine for myself and other journalists. So, with
this goal in mind, the NewsU staff at Poynter has helped me create an
online and very interactive Math for Journalists course.


    
Today just also happens to be the formal launch day for NewsU,
Poynter's online university for journalists. You'll learn more about
NewsU from official messages sent out to the industry by Poynter.


    
In the Math for Journalists course, there are six theme areas packed
with step-by-step formulas (I like to think of these as recipes),
recipes for double checking your work, pop-up screens with common
English tips, story examples, public records data examples and skill
drills. And, by the way, the drills have plenty of skill levels to
choose from so everyone will be challenged.


     The entire course has been written and designed to be used in the following ways:

1. LINEAR – Start from the beginning and work your way through

2. TOPICAL – Choose the order that makes the most sense to you

3.
DEADLINE – Go right to the topic you need at that moment in time. The
formulas and examples are right there without any fluff.


     Here's an outline of what's included in the initial launch:

1. REFRESHERS, includes terms and syntax; order of operations; and, fractions

2. BACKGROUNDERS, includes warm-up exercises; Web resources; and, math helpers

3. PERCENTS OF ALL KINDS, including percent change; percent of total; and, percentage point vs. percent

4. AVERAGES AND MORE, including mean; median; and, mode

5. NUMBER RELATIONSHIPS, including ratio; rank; and, rates with a special section on millage rates

6. ADVANCED TOPICS, including cost of living; weighted averaging; and, estimating the size of a crowd



    
Take the course for a spin in whole or in part, then let me know what
you think. As I hear about suggestions, additions will be made. “Just
in time” newsroom math help and reference 24/7. Free. Forever. Now, is
this cool or what?!




Cheers!

Debbie Wolfe

Technology Training Editor

St. Petersburg Times

800-333-7505, ext. 2919

727-892-2919

Preferred e-mail: dpwolfe@peoplepc.com

Also, check these out these two Web sites:

(1) http://canyonwolfephoto.com

(2) http://usfspconvergence.blogspot.com



Sometimes I-o-P (Ink-on-Paper) <i><u>IS</i></u> better
Apr 6th, 2005 by JTJ

Matt
Ericson, the top-flight map/infographics journalist/designer at The New York
Times, produced another fine piece of work Tuesday related to changes
in the Roman Catholic world.  But what we get in print is superior
[click here to see IoP version] to the online version of the cartogram (i.e.
proportional map), which illustrates how the church has
grown in Latin America, Africa and Asia.  The print page positions
the RC world c. 1900 right next to the RC population c. 2005. 
Readers' eyes can quickly shift from one region to the other and see
the differences.  On the other hand, the online treatment of those
graphics, while supplying data for three different eras — 1900, 1978,
2005 — bring up each era individually, making it difficult to compare
one to the others.  Snazzy presentation, but at a loss of
comprehension.  Go to NYT story “Third World Represeents a New Factor in Pope's Succession” 
and click on the right column link for “Interactive: After John Paul
II.”  Then, after the java window pops up, click on “Changes in
Catholics.”

University GIS connections
Apr 1st, 2005 by JTJ

GISCafe.com, an online magazine for the GIS community, recently established a site for “University
GIS.”
  This includes a number of great tools for analytic
journalists, not the least of which are syllabi for self-learning or
running a training program in a newsroom, along with links to GIS
experts around the nation who might be available as backstops on a GIS
project.

GIS and analysis of traffic accidents
Mar 30th, 2005 by Tom Johnson

The CrimeMap listserv
is one of the best around for nuts-and-bolts tips.  Most of its
contributors are professional crime analysts (unlike journalists who,
it must be said, are semi-pros at best).  To subscribe, check out http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/nij/maps/listserv.html

One of the folks on Crimemapping made a fine contribution today filled
with “heads-up” tips when it comes to crime mapping. 
Gary
Lopez, a crime analyst for the
Connecticut State Police, suggests….

 
        “The analysis of traffic accidents is an
interesting one.  My perspective is looking at, for the most part,
interstate
highways
.  State Police Departments as a general rule have jurisdiction for
the enforcement of crime, traffic accidents, and motor vehicle enforcement on
interstate highways.  In Connecticut, we are able to pick up a good “X” and “Y”
for every accident.  We then take the data and run it through Spatial Analyst. 
In looking at motor vehicle accidents on interstate highways you may
find:
 
1.   
Some traffic accident hotspots occur in very dangerous areas, ones that do not
lend themselves to offering a great deal of motor vehicle enforcement.  That is
to say, if you use high visibility enforcement you might be in a very congested
area with high traffic volume.  The area is already hazardous and might not
offer any safe area for ticketing.  Enforcement in these areas might actually
contribute to accidents.  I have been told by some veteran officers the “trick”
is to get people in and out of large metropolitan areas as fast as
possible.
 
2.      The design of the highways and surrounding
areas might have a greater effect on accidents than enforcement.  To effectively
lower accidents on interstates you have to have long range plans that include
all agencies that govern the highway.  I believe you will find many of the
traffic accident hotspots on interstates fall right in the middle of where two
or more interstate highways converge.  In Hartford for example, you have I-84
and I-91 intersecting in the middle of the city.  People have to make decisions
on going north and south/east and west.  Of course in the afternoon, you have
that sun in your eyes.  These types of decisions have to be made in seconds, and
for those people not familiar with the area are at even more of a disadvantage. 
Highway design plays a huge factor in highway accidents.
 
3.      In doing time studies of motor vehicle
accidents, many are occurring at changes of shifts, and at peak times where
police services are at a premium.  On interstates, especially around
metropolitan areas you will find most of the accidents are occurring
around 07:00 to 09:00 and then at 15:00 to 18:00.  This is the precise time
people are coming home from work and children getting out from school; a time
that has high demand for all police services.
 
4.   
It is very interesting to plot DWI Accidents, meaning those accidents in which
DWI was the cause of the accident.  You may find that your highest
concentrations of accidents occur near routes going to major universities, large
entertainment complexes, or perhaps to out of state jurisdictions where the
drinking age might be lower or where bars stay open longer.  In these
circumstances select enforcement can be effective.
 
5.   
Careful consideration should be given to areas of the highway that are
undergoing construction.  Police visibility should be present to get people to
slow down. Strict enforcement of speed limits in these areas may yield to a
lower accident rate.
 
In
closing, I believe you will find the most accidents are occurring on interstates
where there are very high volume of cars, little or no highway shoulders, areas
that could benefit from a better design and where interstate highways meet.  The
answer to a reduction to these accidents is a difficult one to find.  Giving out
more tickets is not necessarily the answer.” 
 
Gary
Lopez
Crime
Analysis Unit
Connecticut State Police

System Dynamics Society
Mar 29th, 2005 by JTJ

System Dynamics Society
System dynamics is a methodology for studying and managing
complex feedback systems, such as one finds in business and other social
systems. In fact it has been used to address practically every sort of
feedback system. While the word system has been applied to all sorts of
situations, feedback is the differentiating descriptor here. Feedback
refers to the situation of X affecting Y and Y in turn affecting X perhaps
through a chain of causes and effects. One cannot study the link between
X and Y and, independently, the link between Y and X and predict how the
system will behave. Only the study of the whole system as a feedback system
will lead to correct results.

<b>Xcelsius</b> — IAJ's "Best Digital Tool-of-the-Week"
Mar 26th, 2005 by JTJ

Xcelsius
does magical things for your Excel spreadsheets.  It turns the
numeric data into controlable Flash charts, which can be standalone
“movies,” imported into PowerPoint or sent to colleagues as
click-and-manipulate e-mail.  Check out the Quicktime demos at
http://www.infommersion.com/demos.html

Gallery of Data Visualization
Mar 25th, 2005 by JTJ


This Gallery of Data Visualization displays some examples of the
Best and Worst of Statistical
Graphics
, with the view that the contrast may be useful,
inform current practice, and provide some pointers to both historical and current work.
We go from what is arguably
the best statistical graphic ever drawn,
to the current record-holder for the worst.
See http://www.math.yorku.ca/SCS/Gallery/

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