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"Making sense of the world by having fun with statistics!"
Aug 16th, 2006 by JTJ

Fascinating display of global statistics on site, Gapminder  The homepage currently has some dynamic displays related to
Human Development Trends: 2005.  Well worth watching, but be sure to scroll down the page to scan all the useful articles and presentations available.


Then, perhaps saving the best for last, go to the Gapminder Tool  at http://tools.google.com/gapminder.  Note that you can play with the axes to change (a) what is graphed and (b) how it is graphed (log or linear), and hit the play button on the bottom to see how the numbers changed over the past years.  [Thanks Patti Schank for this good tip.]


Search statistics through Google and watch it move with Gapminder

Google Subscribed Links makes it possible to search deep into Gapminder's moving graphs visualizing world development.

Subscribe or go straight to the graph.

Contact gapworld@gapminder.org with questions or suggestions for improvements.


25 Numbers Journalists Should Know
Aug 13th, 2006 by JTJ

25 Numbers Journalists Should
Know

A
few days ago, I asked friends and colleagues on listservs to suggest 25
relatively generic numbers journalists should know in order to be responsible,
effective reporters and editors. 
You sent along the great suggestions included below.  A handful of folks, however,
responded to make two points:

·   It is more important to know where to find pertinent
numbers than it is to know specific numbers, and

·   It is more important to know appropriate
calculations – say, how to compute percent of change – that can be applied to
specific numbers once they are found.

  Yes, points well taken.  But I don’t think any of these
are mutually exclusive. 
Here’s why.


  Any statistical analysis begins with classifying
and counting.  That
process is only relevant if put in some context.  If I tell you that Santa Fe, New
Mexico has about 68,000 people, that number by itself has little meaning in
terms of scale.  Is 68,000
big or small?  How do I
tease some information out of that lonesome statistic?  Ah, but when we can ask how does
it compare to other cities in the state, region or nation meaning and
information start to bubble up?  

  The second analytic step is
estimation.  This is
helpful – perhaps necessary – to have some ballpark figure to help the analyst
determine if his/her calculations are correct or “make sense.”  If the city manager tells a
reporter that the town has been growing by about .5 percent per year since
2000, she could not estimate the amount of growth or its current aggregate
unless she had a baseline number of 68,000. 

 
So we
think that (a) journalists should always have some relevant – and fairly accurate
– ballpark figures in mind to help with context (Yes, some of these will vary
from beat to beat); (b) journalists should know where and how to find the
historic and current statistics; (c) journalists should know how to do some
fairly elementary arithmetic to tease information out of the data.

  Thanks to all for your
contributions.

                                                                        
Tom Johnson [12 August 2006]

·     
Distance (in miles/km and time) from your city to
provincial/national

·     
Capital and principal cities of the world

·    Average number of calories consumed per day for
residents of your nation

·     
Annual production (either in area or amount) of the
five largest food

·     
Crops in your nation

·   The amount (and balance) of trade between your nation
and its five

·     
Largest trading partners (bonus: which commodities
contribute most to that trade)

·     
Average annual rainfall in your city
                                                
[Wendell Cochran, American University]

·     
Add in racial and ethnic groupings, homeless/housing
character (rent/own, size), language, age, religion, business characteristics,
gross domestic product, largest businesses, largest employers (the latter two
are often not synonymous), macro-crime rates, major political parties, voter
registration and recent political outcomes.

·     
The rate of change is at least as important as the
current or historical raw number, and you need both to provide
context.

·     
The list needs to be adjusted for one's beat(s). It
makes no sense to ask a cops reporter to spew out business numbers without end,
but he damned sure ought to know that murders have increased for four of the
last five years.
                       
[Pierce Presley, Master's Candidate, University of Memphis]
 

          
 

·  Homicide rate        
           
           
 

·  Cost of Living for your city compared to nation
                
           
 

·  Average Wage in your city/state/nation               
           
 

·  Average commute time to work (in minutes) compared
to state/nation  
 

·  Median home price for your city compared to peers
(similar sized cities)  
  
 

·  Which industry employs the largest proportion of
your county/state/nation's population? 
(In Indiana, we rank 1st in the nation for manufacturing.  But that's a double edged sword.
In other words, how industry-dependent are you?)

                                                
[Carol Rogers, IUPUI, Indianapolis, Indiana]             
   

·     
Para temas de seguridad: cantidad de policías en
actividad en mi ciudad y cantidad de delitos contra la propiedad por mes o día
(promedio) [Under the category of security: the number of active police in my
city and the daily or monthly average number of property crimes]

·     
Para temas de salud: cantidad de médicos en ejercicio y cantidad de camas
hospitalarias [Health care: the number of practicing doctors and the number of
hospital beds.]

·     
Para temas judiciales: cantidad de causas penales
por juzgado y cantidad de funcionarios judiciales por juzgado [Legal system:
the number of criminal cases by court and the number of employees in the court
system.]

·     
Para temas de contaminación ambiental: cantidad de
monóxido de carbono en  el
aire que respiramos para la ciudad en la que vivimos [Environment: the amount
of carbon monoxide in the air in our city]

·     
Para temas de tránsito: cantidad de accidentes de
tránsito por día, cantidad de automóviles circulando por día y de multas
labradas a los infractores por día (promedios) [Transportation: the average
number of traffic accidents per day; the average number of cars on the city
streets and the average number of tickets/fines per day.]

·     
Para temas electorales: Cantidad de votos emitidos
en elecciones pasadas por partido politico [Elections: the number of votes
cast, by political party, in past elections.

           
[Sandra Crucianelli, journalist and CAR trainer, Bahía Blanca,
Argentina]
 
 

·  
Unemployment.  Worldwise
it is something like 1/3 ( if that isn't gun powder I don't know what
is)
                                     
[Jenny Quillien, FRIAM,  Santa Fe, New Mexico]
 
 

·     
GDP — $13.2 trillion as of the second quarter of
2006, in current dollars (source: http://www.bea.gov )

·     
The U.S. civilian labor force: 151.5 million
Employed: 144.3 million, Unemployed: 7.2 million, Not in the labor force: 77.4
million,  (source: http://www.bls.gov )
It's also useful, of course, to know these figures for your
state/locality.

·    The number of households in the U.S.: 105.5 million,
as of Census 2000 (again, the local number is very useful)

·   
U.S. median household income: $44,473 (three-year
average, 2002-2004) (only 19 of 50 states are above this, by the way) (source:
http://www.census.gov

·     
Largest US corporation, by sales: Exxon Mobil,
$339.4 billion in 2005. Largest by assets: Citicorp, nearly $1.5 trillion.
(Source: Fortune magazine)

·     
Also, a useful math trick is the Rule of 72, a quick
way of calculating how long it will take something to double in size.  That is, if something is growing
at X percent a year, divide X into 72 to get the number of years it will take
to double. So, a city growing at 8 percent a year will double in 9
years.
                                                  
     [John
Byczkowski, Cincinnati Ohio]
 

·   Per capita water (gallons per day) and energy
consumption (kilowatts per year) in your country and how they rank versus other
countries and global average

·     
Water consumption % by sector: industrial,
agricultural, domestic

·     
Proportion of oil, gas, coal that is imported in
your country

·     
Proportion of imports of all food consumed ($ and
KCals)

·     
Energy consumed per unit of GDP (kilowatts per $ of
gdp) and comparison

·     
Per cent of GDP spent on defense and national
ranking

·     
Crime rate matrix: gender by race/ethnicity by age
range

·     
Per capita income matrix: gender by race/ethnicity
by age range

·     
Current level of forestation of your country and
what it was 100 years ago.

·     
Geographic size of your land mass of the earth, your country, state, county,
town

·     
Basic unit conversion from mass to volume: water =
about 64lb per cubic foot

                                              
[Jim Rutt, FRIAM Group, Santa Fe, New
Mexico]
 

I'd suggest
working this question from the perspective of readers/viewers.

·  The price of a bus ticket/monthly pass.

·  The unemployment rate in your country/state/province/city.

·  The cheapest interest rate you can get for a
mortgage in your reporting area and your federal government's overnight
interest rate (the Fed's rate for 
the U.S.; the Bank of Canada's overnight rate here)

·  Your country's trade surplus/deficit

·  The operating surplus or deficit of your national,
regional, and local government.

·   
The debt of your national, regional, and
local  government (and can
you clearly explain the difference between the debt and the deficit)

·   The percentage of eligible voters that actually
exercised their franchise at the last national, regional and local election.
Bonus points if you can say if that percentage is up or down compared to the
previous election!

·   
The price of a litre of milk and a litre of gas in
your area and the national/regional/local average of those goods. (I know you
Americans buy gas by the gallon, but what is it for milk – a quart?)

·   The salary of your top municipal/regional/federal
politician and the salary of the top bureaucrat in each district.

·   An average of mean temperature for your reporting
area yesterday and how hot/cold it was a year ago. Five years ago? Ten years
ago?

·     
How much income does a household have to have in
your area to avoid being labeled as “poor”?

·   I've found that, for survival in a newsroom, it's
always a good idea to always know your circulation/viewership now and what it
was a year ago.
                                                                                       
[David Akin]
 

·  Rate of inflation in the local economy.

·  Exchange rate of relevant currencies.

·  Whatever the reference interest rate is
locally

·  
Year-to-date returns of the local equity market's
index

                                                                      
[Bill Alpert, Sr. Editor, Barron's]
 

·  Population make-up by race, ethnicity, etc. for your
community?
                     
[Jeff Parrott, Projects reporter, South Bend (Ind.) Tribune]
 

Here's a couple
of numbers every journalist should know:

·   The phone number to the library

·   The phone number to the help desk at the Census
Bureau

                                                                                                 
[Jodi Upton]
  

·  The circumference of the earth (25,000
miles).

·  
The mileage on your car.

            
[Teresa Meikle, News Researcher, The Press Democrat, Santa Rosa
CA]
 

·    A good idea of the normal curve, such that education reporters wouldn't make a
big deal about moving from the 48th to the 53rd percentiles with one year's
testing;

·   
A rough idea of converting units (mph to feet per
second once got me a great nugget in a story)

· 
A general breakdown of national race and trends
(more Hispanics than blacks, for the first time, not so many years
ago)

· 
A general idea of long-term debt obligations, which has gotten USA Today some
great stories and almost certainly deserves a greater focus by other news
organizations:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2004-10-03-debt-cover_x.htm
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-05-24-retiree-taxpayers_x.htm

                                                
                                               [Mike
Stucka]
 

·     
Percentage break-downs based on income and age.

·     
Current rate of home ownership, as well as the rate
5, 10 and 20 years ago.
                                                             
                                     [Liz
Carey]
 

·    World population: 6.5 billion

·   
Comfortably crowded together= 65 billion square feet
= 2,331 square miles.
                                            
[Mark Houser, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review]
 

NB: “A multiple
choice quiz given before almost every semester’s class for the past couple of
decades.  Very few
students have any conception of the relative sizes of the different
ethnic/racial/religious groups in the American population and typically
over-represent African Americans, Jews, and (more recently), Latinos.”  

· What is the total population of the United States
today?

· 
American Indians comprise what percentage of the
U.S. population?

· 
What percentage of the U.S. population is Asian
American?

· 
What percentage of the U.S. population is
non-Hispanic white?

·  
What percentage of the U.S. population is African
American?

·  
What percentage of the population is Hispanic or
Latino?

·  
What percentage of the American people is
Jewish?

·  
What percentage of the American people is Roman
Catholic?

·  
In 1860, immediately prior to the Civil War, what percentage of the total
African American population was free?

· 
Which is the most rapidly growing ethnic category in the U.S. today?

·  What percentage of the U.S. population today is
foreign-born?

Answers, except for religion, found at census.gov
             
[Prof. Norm Yetman, American Studies and Sociology, Univ. of
Kansas]
 

·     
Some measure of broadband penetration for the US,
for the most wired countries, and for the area you cover.
                          
[Barbara K. Iverson, Journalism – Columbia College
Chicago]

Numbers that let you explain numbers in ordinary
terms:

·   The number of gallons in a typical swimming pool.
(Around 15,000 gallons, give or   take.) 
Very useful to describe oil, toxic waste spills. 100,000 gallons
equals enough oil to fill nearly seven swimming pools.

·  
Another from Doig the Elder — the space occupied by a single person in a loose
crowd, 10 square feet, or so. Good for counting crowds and deflating
overwrought crowd estimates.

·  The number of ball bearings that fit in a box car,
roughly a billion. Good for explaining “parts per billion.” 

·   Numbers that let you make on-the-fly measurements.
U.S. currency is six inches long. So you can measure feet. Your outstretched
arms are roughly equivalent to your height. Figure out your stride so you can
pace off distance. The top of your thumb, from middle joint to end, is roughly
an inch. Index fingernail is roughly a centimeter. 

·   Basic metric conversions: Meter=39 inches. Kilometer= 5/8 mile. Inch = 2.54 (I
think) centimeters. Ounce = 28 grams. (That one is second nature to those of us
who came of age in a certain generation.)

                                                   
[Neil Reisner, Florida International University]
 

·   (“Credit for the 10-square-feet-per-person rule goes
to a Berkeley j-school professor in the '60s whose name I'm embarrassed to have
forgotten but who wrote a CJR article in about 1968 on the mechanics of
crowd-counting. I've used it a lot.”)

·     
Two steps of your stride is roughly your height, or
so I learned in Boy Scouts a century ago. And to get a good approximation of
kilometers, multiply miles by 0.6 (or by 6 and then move the decimal place over
one to the left.)

·     
One other useful formula: The sampling error margin
on a poll is pretty close to 1 divided by the square root of the size of the
sample; therefore a random sample of 100 respondents has an error margin of
plus or minus 10 percentage points.
                      
                                       [Steve
Doig, Arizona State University]

·  The world's population

·   Your nation's population and as a percent of the
world

·   
Your state/province/district population and as a
percent of your nation

·    Your city's pop. and as a percent of your state/province/district

·   The percent of change for all of the above in the
past 10 years

·     
The current budget of your
nation/state/province/district/city government

·  
The sub-sections of the above budgets for health,
education, public safety, infrastructure and their relative
percentages

·    
The world's live birth rates and same for your
nation/state/ province/ district/city 

·     
Average life expectancy for males and females in
your nation/state/ province/district/city

·   Average family size for your
nation/state/province/district/city

·     
Per capita and per family annual income for your
nation/state/ province/district/city

·   Average years of education for males and females in
the world and your nation/state/province/district/city
                                                
[Tom Johnson, IAJ, Santa Fe, New
Mexico]

 

 

Report from ESRI User Conference – No. 1
Aug 8th, 2006 by JTJ

Some interesting presentations this morning on visualization and modeling as they can be applied in GIS.  See:

Check out http://vissim.uwf.edu/  
This is a growing library of public domain shape models.  “This website
offers access to a new hierarchical data structure that allows the
efficient storage of natural and man-made feature data for use in a
multitude of both manual and computerized Mapping, Charting & Geodesy
systems.”

Also, interesting visualizations at http://www.redlands.edu/x12556.xml 

“The
Redlands Institute has completed projects for a wide range of
industries and organizations. The most prominent projects are grouped
in these categories:




Tracking people and public records
Jul 21st, 2006 by JTJ

Pete Weiss sends the following helpful tip to the CARR-L listserv:

Abstracted from Genie Tyburski's TVC-Alert list:

“(20 Jul) Ballard announces the completion of the <http://www.virtualchase.com/topics/index.html>Database
of Sources on The Virtual Chase. Released in beta during April of this
year, the database contains abstracts and links to Web-based sources of
information for conducting research on companies or people and for
finding legal or factual information. You may browse the database by
subject or search it by keyword.


Source: http://www.virtualchase.com/tvcalert/transfer.asp?xmlFile=jul06/20jul06.xml#db”


At Virtual Chase

Database of Sources


Use the search box above to
query our database of resources for finding legal or factual
information or information about companies or people. Use the
site search engine to expand your
query to other resources available on The Virtual Chase.

Company
Information Guide
– find annotated resources for
conducting company research

People Finder Guide
– find annotated resources for conducting people
research

Legal Research
Guide
– find annotated resources for finding legal
or factual information


U.S. Terror Targets: Petting Zoo and Flea Market?
Jul 13th, 2006 by JTJ

Regular readers know that the IAJ has long been interested in the quality of the data in public records databases.  The NY Times of 12 July 2006 carries a front-page story by Eric Lipton on just how bad the data is in the “National Asset Database.”  As Lipton's story points out:

“The National Asset Database, as it is
known, is so flawed, the inspector general found, that as of January, Indiana,
with 8,591 potential terrorist targets, had 50 percent more listed sites than
New York (5,687) and more than twice as many as California (3,212), ranking the
state the most target-rich place in the nation….

“But the audit says that lower-level
department officials agreed that some older information in the inventory “was
of low quality and that they had little faith in it.

“The presence of large numbers of out-of-place
assets taints the credibility of the data,” the report says.”

Sigh.  This is not a new problem, or even one that we can hang on the Bush Administration.  It started with the Clinton Administration in 1998.  In 1998, President Clinton issued Presidential Decision Directive No. 63
(PDD-63), Critical Infrastructure Protection, which set forth principles for
protecting the nation by minimizing the threat of smaller-scale terrorist attacks
against information technology and geographically-distributed supply chains
that could cascade and disrupt entire sectors of the economy.” [Source here.]

Link to the PDF of the Inspector General's Report at http://www.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/20060711_DHS.pdf



Statistically correct maps
Jul 6th, 2006 by JTJ

This week Mark Hartnett, of the Palm Beach Post, alerts us to a map he and his paper recently published, a map of the hometowns of the U.S. troops killed as a result of the U.S. invasion of Iraq and Afganistan.  They did a similar map a year ago, but one that reflected the gross numbers of the dead from each city.  This year they put those numbers in context by displaying the rate of deaths per 100,000 population.  It makes a difference and raises new questions.  Note that the height of the columns reflects, as Mark Hartnett points out in his comment below, the number of deaths while the color indicates deaths-per-100,000 residents ages 18-64.


To see the map, go to “2,800 Hero's Hometowns.”  (Yes, they are all worthy men and women, but “heros”?)  [Here's the link to the story. ] 





Some well-deserved recognition for news researchers
Jul 5th, 2006 by JTJ

Many of us have long-recognized that a top-flight team of news researchers is the marrow of any good news operation.  So it is that we point you to a recent column in The Washington Post. 

washingtonpost.com




ad_icon

The Post's Unsung Sleuths

By Deborah Howell
Sunday, July 2, 2006; B06

The
reporting that appears in The Post is supported by an infrastructure of
research that readers do not see, except as credited in the occasional
tag line at the end of a story.

Those tag lines don't begin to
acknowledge the work done for reporters and readers by the News
Research Center. The musty newspaper morgue of lore, brimming with
crumbling clippings in tidy little envelopes, is now full of computers
and researchers that Post journalists can't live without. Yes, there's
still paper — about 7,500 books, 30 periodicals a month and 15 daily
newspapers.

Center director Bridget Roeber said the researchers
are “news junkies, who see themselves not just as librarians but
journalists finding and analyzing original documents, tracking people
down, finding leads, using obscure databases.”
[more]



Blazing "Human Trails In Cyberspace"
Jun 30th, 2006 by JTJ

From The Chronicle of Higher Education:
http://chronicle.com/temp/reprint.php?id=t1n20rynvsqvbk0g14g8pth0vlnbl1yd

“Human Trails In Cyberspace

Social scientists create maps of online interactions

Blogs

Multimedia: Maps and audio charting human interactions in cyberspace

If the Internet is a new kind of social space, what does it look like?

That's a question of particular interest to social scientists eager
to see what cyberspace might reveal about the nature of human behavior.

Researchers, after all, have long sought to map social groupings and
interactions in the physical world. Now, with so much activity on
computer networks, scientists can collect vast amounts of hard data on
human behavior. Each blog points to other blogs in ways that reveal
patterns of influence. Online chats can be tallied and parsed. Even the
act of clicking on links can leave trails of activity like footprints
in the sand….




A MUST read: The (Ongoing) Vitality of Mythical Numbers
Jun 30th, 2006 by JTJ

“The (Ongoing) Vitality of Mythical Numbers
<http://www.slate.com/id/2144508/
>
This article serves as a valuable reminder that we should view
all statistics, no matter how frequently they are used in
public arguments, with skepticism until we know who produced
them and how they were derived.”


From:

Neat New Stuff I Found This Week


<
http://marylaine.com/neatnew.html>

Copyright, Marylaine Block, 1999-2006.

Sometimes what is NOT there is more important
Jun 27th, 2006 by JTJ

Steve Bass, a PC World columnist, had an item this week that reminds us that a good analytic journalist is always thinking about what is NOT in the data.  He writes:


Risky Business: Stealth Surfing at Work


Not long after I told my buddy about Anonymizer, I heard from another friend, an IT director for a fairly large company. It may
not be such a good idea to surf anonymously at the office:


“I recently had an employee, an MIS employee at that, fired. He was using Anonymizer at work. We have a tracking system (Web
Inspector) and I kept noticing that he was leaving no tracks.


“I consulted with my supervisor and he decided that I should analyze the employee's system. I found footprints, hacking, and a
batch file he used to delete all Internet traces. So I sent the system off to forensics and they found all the bits, each and
every one. We're now in legal limbo. The employee is being fired, not for the hacking or the batch file, but for using the
Anonymizer.


“Thought maybe you'd be interested in hearing about the dangers of using the Anonymizer in the workplace. They claim the
Anonymizer hides your tracks at work–but I guess not all of them.”


–Name Withheld, Network and Computer Systems Administrator


I asked George Siegel, my network guru, what he thought. Here's what he said: “It's interesting to note how the user was
initially discovered — by the absence of anything incriminating. Network professionals have logs showing just about everything
that goes on and they look for any deviation from the norm. I can always tell who is up to no good… their computers are
scrupulously clean.





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